(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – The winds of war in Ukraine are fueling risk aversion and encouraging investors to be cautious, who are easing their equity positions at the beginning of the week by focusing on low-risk assets such as government bonds and the yen. Conversely, on the European stock exchanges, the prices of raw materials rose sharply, starting with palladium and wheat, the world supply of which largely depends on Russia and Ukraine, but also gas.
Thus in Piazza Affari the FTSE MIB came to lose nearly four points, sunk by the banks, but the CAC 40 in Paris, the DAX 40 in Frankfurt, the IBEX 35 in Madrid, the Ftse 100 in London and the AEX in Amsterdam. To watch euro/dollar, down to 1.135, and lo The BTp-Bund spread jumped to 170 pointson June 2020 levels, also due to the purchases of the Bund in the last session, based on its safe haven effect in the event of tensions.
The Moscow Stock Exchange and the ruble also fell
The dollar-denominated RTSI index fell 3.97%, after losing more than 5 points (down more than 12% since the start of the year). The Russian currency also crashed, reaching over 88 rubles to the euro, before settling at 86.5, and 78 rubles to the dollar, before stabilizing at 76.5. At the end of January, the Russian currency had passed the psychological threshold of 80 rubles to the dollar, for the first time since November 2020, while the euro had exceeded 90 rubles. The Russian central bank intervened by suspending the purchase of foreign currencies in an attempt to limit losses. Another sign of the widespread concern is the fact that the ruble and the Russian stock market are suffering even though the price of oil is high (beyond today’s weakness), the Urals, Russian oil, reaching more than 92 dollars per year. barrel. Even in Ukraine, the risk of an imminent Russian invasion weighs heavily on growth forecasts and on the local currency, the hryvnia, which has fallen to its lowest level in four years (33 for one euro and 29 for one dollar). , weighed down by capital flight, forcing the central bank to spend more than a billion dollars in an attempt to keep it afloat.
In Milan a black day for the banks, even the broken down car
In Milan blue chips, sales hit banks first, with sales on Banco Bpm, after Friday’s rush sparked by rumors of a possible takeover by Unicredit. But among the worst there are also Banca Pop Er and Intesa Sanpaolo. Decline in automobile values as well, with Cnh Industrial and Stellantis down sharply, while, as in the rest of the Old Continent, the damage is limited to the energy sector: drops of less than one point for Snam Rete Gas and Terna, a little more marked for Eni, Hera and Italgas.
The spread climbs to 170 points, the highest since June 2020
After opening slightly lower, the spread between BTp and Bund on the MTS secondary market for European government bonds jumped to 170 basis points, and returned to June 2020 levels, amid fears of a possible escalation of a conflict in Ukraine. And after a week that confirmed the trend towards enlargement that appeared after the last ECB meeting. The yield difference between the ten-year benchmark BTp (Isin IT0005436693) and the same German maturity reached 170 basis points compared to the 165 recorded at the start and 166 points at the close on Friday. The Btp Bankmark ten-year yield drops to 1.90% from 1.95% at the open and 1.96% at the previous day’s benchmark.
Gasoline prices go up, oil slows down
Oil, after an initial bullish movement, is slowing down after the increases of the last 8 weeks. WTI for March delivery fell below $93 a barrel, while Brent for the same timeframe fell below $94.
On the other hand, the price of gas rose sharply, gaining 10% to 85.20 euros per megawatt hour in Amsterdam after having reached its maximum since the end of January at 88 euros.